A confirmed disruption incident (vessel seizure, mine strike, or blockade attempt) will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis analysis shows 67% escalation probability despite a sufficient 50% bargaining range; dominant actor types calculating but audience-cost pressure and the Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% range) raise tail-risk of miscalculation into kinetic action.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

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A confirmed disruption incident (vessel seizure, mine strike, or blockade attempt) will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

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