North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-01.

Derived from: North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (DPRK: ICBM launch, US: Sanctions escalation, confidence 70%) and DPRK actor intelligence noting expanding nuclear doctrine and elevated posture.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 17

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

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