[basis: absence] GDELT was unavailable. Two differently worded web searches, one for 'North Korea launched ICBM September 17 October 1 2026' and another for 'DPRK intercontinental ballistic missile test launch late September 2026,' found no official- or wire-tier report of a completed ICBM test in the window. The September 22 CFR general conflict tracker does not confirm a new test. Actual confirmed tests found: 0; required: 1; 0 < 1, threshold not met. This is an absence-of-evidence assessment, not affirmative proof of no launch.
Resolved Oct 8, 2026
Geopolitical
ICBM
North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.722.
Derived from: North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (DPRK: ICBM launch, US: Sanctions escalation, confidence 70%) and DPRK actor intelligence noting expanding nuclear doctrine and elevated posture.
Probability
85%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Oct 113d ago
Made
Price Target$14
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.