Within window, South China Morning Post (other tier), dated September 20, 2026: 'North Korea fires 2 missiles in 3 hours amid tensions over US drills'; separately Yahoo (other tier), dated September 20: 'North Korea fires two suspected ballistic missiles off east coast within three hours.' A September 20 report also says 'North Korea fires additional projectile after short-range ballistic missile launch: South Korea Military' (ANI News, other tier). Actual: at least 1 ballistic missile launch on September 20; required: at least 1; 1 >= 1, threshold met. September 13 reports precede creation and were excluded. GDELT search was unavailable.
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG correctICBM
North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 67% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-28. Brier score 0.106.
North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium identifies 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' as the most likely mixed-strategy outcome (70% confidence), consistent with the actor intelligence note on expanding maritime nuclear doctrine and border deployments.
Probability
67%
Timeframe
7 days
Deadline
Sep 218d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.