North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 58% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium: 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' (mixed, 70% model confidence), following the already-confirmed short-range missile test in the prior window; escalation to ICBM-class test is the next rung on the ladder but base rate for policy_action/geopolitical (20%) tempers confidence.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

geopolitical85%

North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

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