North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 77% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence) plus actor intelligence showing DPRK 'significantly escalating military posture with new border deployments'; binary_event/geopolitical reference class hit rate is 55%, and short-range provocations occur far more frequently than the already-covered ICBM-class threshold.

Probability: 77%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

geopolitical85%

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

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