North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.

North Korea Nash equilibrium identifies 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' as most likely (confidence 70%); North Korea actor intelligence confirms escalating military posture with new border deployments and expanded doctrine.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%

North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

geopolitical85%

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture