North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.
North Korea Nash equilibrium identifies 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' as most likely (confidence 70%); North Korea actor intelligence confirms escalating military posture with new border deployments and expanded doctrine.
- Probability
- 70%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 272d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.