HITBrier 0.090

Web search results dated September 20, 2026 report 'North Korea fires short-range ballistic missile toward the sea in its latest weapons display' (Economic Times, other tier) and 'North Korea fires two ballistic missiles into East Sea, with second flying over 600km' (The Journal, other tier); both report a completed launch within the evidence window. Actual: at least 1 confirmed launch, required: 1; 1 >= 1, threshold met. GDELT search_news was unavailable.

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Geopolitical

ICBM

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 70% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-04. Brier score 0.090.

North Korea Nash equilibrium identifies 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' as most likely (confidence 70%); North Korea actor intelligence confirms escalating military posture with new border deployments and expanded doctrine.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2717d ago
Made: Sep 13

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%EXPIRED

North Korea will conduct a long-range or ICBM-class missile test (distinct from short-range provocations) within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

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