Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Kremlin actor intelligence confirms continued aggressive consolidation of political and military authority with no credible competing coalition; this exceeds the crowd's 74% pricing on Polymarket #1130012 given structural incumbency advantages.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 13 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

geopolitical85%

A confirmed disruption incident (vessel seizure, mine strike, or blockade attempt) will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will hold a confirmed direct high-level negotiation session (beyond preliminary diplomatic statements) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

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