Russia and Ukraine will hold a confirmed direct high-level negotiation session (beyond preliminary diplomatic statements) within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Derived from: Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame analysis showing a 50% bargaining range (sufficient for agreement), 2 stable Bayesian equilibria, and most-likely outcome 'Russia: Negotiate from strength, US: Push negotiated settlement' at 91% probability, market impact bullish with 78% confidence — the strongest Fearon-stable equilibrium in the dataset.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will hold a confirmed direct high-level negotiation session (beyond preliminary diplomatic statements) within 30 days

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