Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 44% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Derived from: Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame analysis showing a sufficient 50% bargaining range and a stable most-likely equilibrium (Russia: Negotiate from strength, US: Push negotiated settlement, p=91%, bullish, confidence 78%), materially different from the pending 'high-level negotiation session' prediction by requiring an actual ceasefire announcement.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

geopolitical85%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

The US Department of Justice or FTC will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action (lawsuit filing, breakup proposal, or consent decree) targeting a major Big Tech firm within 30 days.

geopolitical36%

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The United States will announce new tariffs or export-control measures targeting Chinese technology or semiconductor firms within 30 days

geopolitical60%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

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