The US Department of Justice or FTC will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action (lawsuit filing, breakup proposal, or consent decree) targeting a major Big Tech firm within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 36% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Nash equilibrium: Big Tech Antitrust Showdown scenario shows 'US chooses Pursue breakup; markets chooses Long small-cap competitors' as most likely (mixed, confidence 70%); anchored to policy_action/geopolitical base rate of ~20%.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

geopolitical44%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

geopolitical85%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

China will announce new retaliatory tariffs or export restrictions targeting US goods or technology within 30 days

geopolitical54%

The US Department of Justice or FTC will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action (lawsuit filing, breakup proposal, or consent decree) targeting a major Big Tech firm within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture