China will announce new retaliatory tariffs or export restrictions targeting US goods or technology within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 54% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

US-China Trade War Bayesian analysis shows a 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), bearish market assessment at 60% confidence, and critical coalition fracture risk, consistent with continued tit-for-tat measures rather than the Nash equilibrium's 'negotiate concessions' baseline.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Department of Justice or FTC will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action (lawsuit filing, breakup proposal, or consent decree) targeting a major Big Tech firm within 30 days.

geopolitical36%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

geopolitical44%

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China will announce new retaliatory tariffs or export restrictions targeting US goods or technology within 30 days

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