Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-28.

Derived from: Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Nash equilibrium (fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance, confidence 55%), which implies a hold rather than a cut or hike; crowd currently prices YES at 55%.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 42 days
Deadline: Oct 28in 29d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will announce a formal ceasefire agreement, even partial or temporary, within 30 days.

geopolitical44%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

The US Department of Justice or FTC will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action (lawsuit filing, breakup proposal, or consent decree) targeting a major Big Tech firm within 30 days.

geopolitical36%

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

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