The United States will announce new tariffs or export-control measures targeting Chinese technology or semiconductor firms within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 60% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining-range collapse (0%) with bearish market assessment (confidence 60%); anchored to policy_action/geopolitical base rate (20%) with modest uplift given the structural-conflict signal.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

geopolitical85%

Russia and Ukraine will hold a confirmed direct high-level negotiation session (beyond preliminary diplomatic statements) within 30 days

geopolitical85%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

geopolitical85%

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The United States will announce new tariffs or export-control measures targeting Chinese technology or semiconductor firms within 30 days

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