China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-01.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: dominant equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100% probability but fragile stability (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk), consistent with ongoing PLA intelligence updates showing sustained operational tempo.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

China's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

geopolitical69%

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

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