China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.
Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis most-likely equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability) and China PLA Intelligence Update noting sustained elevated operational tempo around Taiwan.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 5in 6d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.