China's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-23.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium: China Gray zone escalation / US Economic deterrence (p=100%), narrow 25% bargaining range, critical coalition fracture risk (30% stability). Prior 14-day windows confirmed comparable incursions (e.g., 21 aircraft/8 ships single-day event); ongoing gray-zone pressure campaign supports continuation at elevated but not certain scale.

Probability

69%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 236d ago

Made

Sep 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.