HITBrier 0.023

Taiwan News (other tier), October 3, 2026: 'Taiwan tracks 13 Chinese ships, 5 military aircraft' within prediction window, confirming Chinese naval presence in waters surrounding Taiwan. Actual: at least 1 reported incursion day, required: 1; 1 >= 1, threshold met. The metadata 'Price Target: ADIZ above 14' does not appear in the claim, which requires at least one incursion, not more than 14 aircraft.

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Geopolitical

ADIZ

China will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-13. Brier score 0.023.

Derived from Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: 100% probability equilibrium of China gray-zone escalation/US economic deterrence, 25% narrow bargaining range, critical fracture risk, consistent with China PLA actor intelligence showing elevated operational tempo. Reference class binary_event/geopolitical shows underconfidence (55% actual vs 36% avg stated).

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 610d ago
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%EXPIRED

China's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%EXPIRED

China's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

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China will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

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