Houthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 71% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-28.
Nash equilibrium for Red Sea Shipping Crisis: 'Iran chooses Maintain Houthi support; US chooses Naval convoy escorts' (2 equilibria, mixed), consistent with sustained low-level Houthi harassment absent a diplomatic resolution.
- Probability
- 71%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 281d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.