Houthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 71% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-28.

Nash equilibrium for Red Sea Shipping Crisis: 'Iran chooses Maintain Houthi support; US chooses Naval convoy escorts' (2 equilibria, mixed), consistent with sustained low-level Houthi harassment absent a diplomatic resolution.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 281d ago
Made: Sep 14

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

India will conduct or officially confirm a cross-border military strike against targets in Pakistan-administered Kashmir within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, boarding, or seizure incident against a non-US-flagged commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

Hezbollah will conduct a new confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border strike against Israeli territory within 14 days.

geopolitical74%

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Houthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.

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