The United States will announce a new export control or enforcement action against a Chinese semiconductor firm within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: 'china: Gray zone escalation, us: Economic deterrence' at p=100% with fragile 30% coalition stability; economic deterrence implies continued/incremental US export-control actions targeting Chinese tech.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 14in 15d
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new tariff increase or broad trade restriction on Chinese imports (a category-wide measure, not limited to semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

The United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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The United States will announce a new export control or enforcement action against a Chinese semiconductor firm within 30 days.

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