The United States will announce a new tariff increase or broad trade restriction on Chinese imports (a category-wide measure, not limited to semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 24% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Derived from: Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation analysis showing a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely) despite the Nash model's optimistic 'negotiate concessions/negotiate deal' baseline, bearish 60% confidence assessment on market impact.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 14in 15d
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

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The United States will announce a new export control or enforcement action against a Chinese semiconductor firm within 30 days.

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The United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

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OPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas unchanged, announcing no new production cut, at its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

The United States will announce a new tariff increase or broad trade restriction on Chinese imports (a category-wide measure, not limited to semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

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