Hezbollah will conduct a new confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border strike against Israeli territory within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 74% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-28.

Hezbollah Intelligence Update confirms sustained rocket attacks and refusal of ceasefire negotiations; combined with the 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score in the active thesis, continuation of strikes is the modal outcome.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 281d ago
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, boarding, or seizure incident against a non-US-flagged commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical70%

OPEC+ will announce a new production cut at or ahead of its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

Houthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.

geopolitical71%

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Hezbollah will conduct a new confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border strike against Israeli territory within 14 days.

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