Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, boarding, or seizure incident against a non-US-flagged commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-28.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz assessment shows 67% escalation probability despite a 50% bargaining range, and institutional memory confirms a sustained multi-incident pattern (tanker seizures, mine deployment) throughout August 2026, indicating continuation likelihood over new resolution.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 281d ago
Made: Sep 14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Hezbollah will conduct a new confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border strike against Israeli territory within 14 days.

geopolitical74%

Houthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.

geopolitical71%

India will conduct or officially confirm a cross-border military strike against targets in Pakistan-administered Kashmir within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

OPEC+ will announce a new production cut at or ahead of its next ministerial meeting within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, boarding, or seizure incident against a non-US-flagged commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture