Multiple wire-tier (Reuters) reports confirm ongoing incidents within the window: 'UAE says Iran attacked ADNOC vessel in Hormuz, urges waterway's reopening' (Reuters, 2026-08-15); 'Shipping slows through Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks, data shows' (Reuters, 2026-08-16, past-tense confirmation of attacks); 'Iran threatens 45 tankers with fines, confiscation in Hormuz escalation' (Reuters, 2026-08-24); 'Kuwaiti tanker hit in latest Hormuz shipping attack' (Arab News, 2026-08-27); CENTCOM confirms it had to clear Iranian-placed sea mines from the Strait as of 2026-08-28 (multiple outlets), implying mines had been deployed during the window. Actual count of distinct incidents >=3, Required >=1, 3 >= 1 therefore threshold MET. Direction (continuation of harassment pattern) confirmed correct.
Resolved Aug 29, 2026
Geopolitical
Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the pattern already confirmed in the prior evidence window.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-15 at 41% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-29. Brier score 0.346.
Derived from: Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis analysis (escalation probability 67%, sufficient bargaining range 50% but fragile), and directly precedented by the already-confirmed July 2026 tanker mine/seizure incidents.
Probability
41%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Aug 2931d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.