[basis: absence] Searches for 'China property stimulus announcement', 'China property rescue package', and 'China property mortgage down payment central bank' within the Aug19-Sep18 window returned no wire/official-tier confirmation of a targeted property-sector bailout. Found instead: Reuters (Sep14) 'China home prices remain weak, keeping pressure on economy'; Reuters (Sep15) 'economic imbalances deepen as consumption slows'; Reuters (Aug24) on a $119B policy financing tool, which is a broad infrastructure/investment financing tool, not a targeted property-sector bailout measure; SCMP (Sep7) discusses housing presale rules as an existing risk, not a new stimulus. No past-tense confirmation of a new targeted property stimulus/bailout was found across three differently-phrased searches.
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG wrongN/A
China will announce at least one new targeted property-sector stimulus or bailout measure within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-19 at 21% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.044.
Bayesian/Nash China Property-Stimulus Dilemma most likely equilibrium is 'targeted property bailout' with 70% Nash confidence, though policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate is only ~20%, warranting a damped confidence estimate.
Probability
21%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Sep 1811d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.