Wire-tier sources within window: Reuters (Sep 17, 2026) 'Russia says new US sanctions, if signed by Trump, would make Ukraine peace deal harder'; NYT (Sep 18-19, 2026) 'Trump Wants Putin to End the War. He May Offer Russia Business Deals First' and 'Russia Warns New U.S. Sanctions Law Would Harm Trump's Peace Efforts'; Reuters (Sep 4) 'Putin cites chance of peace deal, Zelenskiy says US negotiators to visit both countries'. All confirm ongoing negotiations/complications but NO signed comprehensive agreement occurred in the Aug19-Sep18 window. Additional source: Anadolu Ajansı (Aug 23) quotes Zelenskyy saying late-2026/summer-2027 is realistic window for a deal, confirming no near-term signing. No wire/official source reports a completed signing. Threshold (no formal deal signed) met; direction (flat/no-deal) correct.
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Geopolitical
FLAT correctN/A
Russia and Ukraine will NOT sign a comprehensive, formalized peace or ceasefire agreement within 30 days, despite continued incremental negotiation steps.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-19 at 47% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.278.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a sufficient (50%) bargaining range and stable 'negotiate from strength' outcome (91% probability) supporting continued talks, but full formal agreement historically lags incremental prisoner exchanges/negotiation sessions by much longer than 30 days; base rate for policy_action/geopolitical completions within this window is low (20% hit rate).
Probability
47%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Sep 1811d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .