The US will announce at least one additional export control, sanction, or technology-restriction action targeting Chinese firms within 30 days, continuing the pattern set by the already-confirmed August 2026 FCC/Xinjiang measures under the Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-15 at 20% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-22.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability), directly precedented by the already-confirmed US FCC export-control and Xinjiang sanction actions in early August 2026.

Probability

20%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Sep 1415d ago

Made

Aug 15

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.