MISSBrier 0.063

Search within prediction window 2026-05-13 to 2026-05-27 found only 1 result: 'Strait of Hormuz Closure: The Global Oil Supply Crisis Explained' dated 2026-05-22. This discusses oil supply crisis but does not mention any European country announcing emergency natural gas rationing or industrial curtailment measures. No evidence found of any major European nation implementing the specific policy actions described in the prediction. Actual announcements found: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved May 27, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major European country will announce emergency natural gas storage rationing or industrial curtailment measures within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% combines with wartime energy supply disruptions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-13 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-27. Brier score 0.063.

Derived from: Wartime regime with 67% Hormuz escalation probability from Bayesian analysis. Iran IRGC in sustained offensive operations per actor intelligence. European energy crisis already documented with rationing discussions. Reference class for policy_action/geopolitical shows 28% hit rate.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: May 27125d ago
Made: May 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or release within 14 days

geopolitical25%MISS

At least one ASEAN member country will announce emergency trade route diversification or shipping security measures within 30 days

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

Pakistan will announce at least one emergency economic measure or external financing agreement within 30 days

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

At least one major European country will announce emergency natural gas storage rationing or industrial curtailment measures within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% combines with wartime energy supply disruptions

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture