At least one ASEAN member country will announce emergency trade route diversification or shipping security measures within 30 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-14 at 25% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.
Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Bayesian analysis showing 67% escalation probability with Iran-US interaction, combined with Strait of Malacca becoming critical alternative chokepoint during Persian Gulf disruptions. ASEAN countries have direct shipping vulnerability requiring protective measures. Historical precedent from 2019 Hormuz tensions when Malaysia announced enhanced patrols.
- Probability
- 25%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Jun 13108d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.