At least one ASEAN member country will announce emergency trade route diversification or shipping security measures within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-14 at 25% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-07-09.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Bayesian analysis showing 67% escalation probability with Iran-US interaction, combined with Strait of Malacca becoming critical alternative chokepoint during Persian Gulf disruptions. ASEAN countries have direct shipping vulnerability requiring protective measures. Historical precedent from 2019 Hormuz tensions when Malaysia announced enhanced patrols.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Jun 13108d ago
Made: May 14

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least one ASEAN member state will announce emergency fuel import agreements or energy security partnerships within 14 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% threaten regional energy supply chains

geopolitical13%PARTIAL

At least 3 ASEAN countries will announce new maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within 7 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative route during Red Sea shipping disruptions

geopolitical12%MISS

At least 2 ASEAN member states will announce new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises within 7 days as regional chokepoint vulnerability creates alliance strengthening pressure

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At least one ASEAN member country will announce emergency trade route diversification or shipping security measures within 30 days

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