Partial evidence of energy supply concerns but no formal announcements found. Web search results show 'Oil-thirsty Asian nations seek Russian crude as Iran war strains supplies' (March 31) and 'Asia's Gas Shock Playbook: Coal, Curtailment, and Competing for LNG' (April 9), indicating ASEAN region was indeed seeking alternative energy supplies due to Iran conflict disruptions. However, these describe general seeking behavior and market responses, not formal government announcements of 'emergency fuel import agreements or energy security partnerships' by specific ASEAN member states. Direction correct (energy supply pressure occurred) but specific threshold not met.
Resolved Apr 14, 2026
Geopolitical
ASEAN
At least one ASEAN member state will announce emergency fuel import agreements or energy security partnerships within 14 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% threaten regional energy supply chains
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-31 at 13% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-14. Brier score 0.017.
Derived from: Confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure per multiple sources and Taiwan Strait escalation probability 53% from Bayesian analysis. ASEAN heavily dependent on Middle East energy imports. Using reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' base rate 38% but adjusting up due to confirmed supply disruptions already materializing.
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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.