MISSBrier 0.268

Search during March 19-26, 2026 evidence window found 3 relevant articles: 'Southeast Asia's quiet arms race' (Mar 25), 'Philippines' balancing statecraft' (Mar 23), and 'Australia-EU Free Trade Deal' (Mar 24). None of these articles report specific ASEAN member state announcements of new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises during the prediction window. The Australia-EU trade deal is not an ASEAN defense announcement. Actual announcements found: 0, Required: 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

ASEAN

At least 2 ASEAN member states will announce new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises within 7 days as regional chokepoint vulnerability creates alliance strengthening pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 52% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.268.

Derived from: Multiple Bayesian scenarios show escalation probabilities >50% (Taiwan 53%, Iran 20% but Fearon failure), creating regional security dilemma. Base rate for military drill announcements is 70% per week. ASEAN states historically coordinate defense posture during strait tensions. Vernal Equinox convergence window historically correlates with policy announcements.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 19

Price Target$7

Regimewartime

At least 3 ASEAN countries will announce new maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within 7 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative route during Red Sea shipping disruptions

geopolitical12%MISS

At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

geopolitical5%MISS

Thailand will announce at least one new regional security cooperation agreement or ASEAN defense initiative within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns intensify amid Hormuz diplomatic brinkmanship

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At least 2 ASEAN member states will announce new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises within 7 days as regional chokepoint vulnerability creates alliance strengthening pressure

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