MISSBrier 0.119

Searched ASEAN-India trade agreements within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Found 6 general articles but no specific announcements of new bilateral trade or investment agreements between ASEAN members and India. Articles covered general trade topics and investment guides but did not report any new ASEAN-India bilateral agreements announced during the prediction period. Actual: 0 agreements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

ASEAN

At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new bilateral trade or investment agreements with India within 30 days as supply chain diversification accelerates away from China-Taiwan risk exposure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.119.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium (53% escalation probability) driving supply chain hedge demand. India positioned as primary beneficiary of China+1 strategies. Base rate for new trade agreements adjusted upward by crisis hedging behavior. Compound probability: P(supply chain concerns intensify) * P(ASEAN-India deal | concerns) = 0.70 * 0.75 = 0.52

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$30

Regimepeacetime

Thailand will announce at least one new regional security cooperation agreement or ASEAN defense initiative within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns intensify amid Hormuz diplomatic brinkmanship

geopolitical7%MISS

At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

geopolitical5%MISS

At least 2 ASEAN member states will announce new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises within 7 days as regional chokepoint vulnerability creates alliance strengthening pressure

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At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new bilateral trade or investment agreements with India within 30 days as supply chain diversification accelerates away from China-Taiwan risk exposure

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