MISSBrier 0.013

Web search for ASEAN maritime security initiatives and naval cooperation agreements from March 20-27, 2026 returned 0 results. No evidence found of any ASEAN countries announcing maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within the 7-day prediction window. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 3, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 27, 2026

Geopolitical

ASEAN

At least 3 ASEAN countries will announce new maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within 7 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative route during Red Sea shipping disruptions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 12% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-27. Brier score 0.013.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium showing continued Iranian Houthi support creating persistent routing disruption. Historical base rate: defense cooperation announcements occur 25% per month, elevated during chokepoint crises. Malacca Strait handles 60% of global LNG trade.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 27186d ago
Made: Mar 20

Price Target$7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 3 ASEAN countries will announce new maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within 7 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative route during Red Sea shipping disruptions

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