MISSBrier 0.003

Web search for ASEAN naval security measures and maritime cooperation agreements within the evidence window (March 16-30) returned 0 results. The search excluded 15 results that fell outside this window but found no announcements of new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements by any ASEAN member nation during the prediction period. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Geopolitical

ASEAN

At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Taiwan Strait Crisis with 53% escalation probability and fragile bargaining range at 25%. Game theory projects China gray zone escalation vs US economic deterrence. Defense cooperation announcements have 25% monthly base rate. ASEAN nations highly sensitive to shipping disruption.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 16

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

At least 2 ASEAN member states will announce new defense cooperation agreements or joint military exercises within 7 days as regional chokepoint vulnerability creates alliance strengthening pressure

geopolitical52%MISS

At least 3 ASEAN countries will announce new maritime security initiatives or naval cooperation agreements within 7 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative route during Red Sea shipping disruptions

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Thailand will announce at least one new regional security cooperation agreement or ASEAN defense initiative within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint concerns intensify amid Hormuz diplomatic brinkmanship

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At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

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