MISSBrier 0.064

Search found only one relevant result: 'France refuses to tap oil reserves without clarity on Iran war' (May 22, 2026). This indicates France explicitly REFUSED to release reserves, not an announcement of coordination or release. No evidence found of any G7 country announcing emergency SPR coordination or release during the prediction window. Actual announcements: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved May 26, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or release within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-12 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-26. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz escalation probability 67% with Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations creating supply disruption requiring coordinated response. OPEC+ Production Decision fragile equilibrium per Bayesian analysis. G7 Summit convergence (June 14) creates policy coordination window. Reference class policy_action/geopolitical 28% hit rate, reduced for calibration correction.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: May 26126d ago
Made: May 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least one major European country will announce emergency natural gas storage rationing or industrial curtailment measures within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% combines with wartime energy supply disruptions

geopolitical25%MISS

At least one ASEAN member country will announce emergency trade route diversification or shipping security measures within 30 days

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

Pakistan will announce at least one emergency economic measure or external financing agreement within 30 days

geopolitical25%

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At least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or release within 14 days

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