Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 66% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis escalation probability of 67%, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), and the intensity-5/5 Yom Kippur War anniversary signal convergence (historical: 1973 surprise attack, oil embargo) align with the repeated confirmed pattern of Hormuz incidents this quarter.

Probability: 66%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 11

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Pakistan will conduct or acknowledge at least one retaliatory cross-border military strike or artillery exchange against India-administered territory within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

The United States will announce or conduct a new naval convoy escort operation in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

geopolitical26%

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Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

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