Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 66% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.
Bayesian Hormuz Crisis escalation probability of 67%, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), and the intensity-5/5 Yom Kippur War anniversary signal convergence (historical: 1973 surprise attack, oil embargo) align with the repeated confirmed pattern of Hormuz incidents this quarter.
- Probability
- 66%
- Timeframe
- 10 days
- Deadline
- Sep 218d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.