Pakistan will conduct or acknowledge at least one retaliatory cross-border military strike or artillery exchange against India-administered territory within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 52% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation Nash equilibrium (mixed, 70% confidence: US surgical strikes, China accepts mediation) implies an active tit-for-tat cycle; base rate for binary_event/geopolitical is 55% but this specifies the Pakistani counter-move rather than the already-covered Indian strike, so probability is scaled down for specificity.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

geopolitical66%EXPIRED

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

geopolitical43%

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Pakistan will conduct or acknowledge at least one retaliatory cross-border military strike or artillery exchange against India-administered territory within 30 days.

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