Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian Fearon failure (0% bargaining range, 'structural conditions favor conflict', bearish 60% confidence), signaling elevated tail risk of a kinetic strike beyond the diplomatic-pressure baseline.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Pakistan will conduct or acknowledge at least one retaliatory cross-border military strike or artillery exchange against India-administered territory within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

geopolitical43%EXPIRED

The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

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Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

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