The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), but the Bayesian escalation probability for this specific dyad is only 20%, and existing pending predictions already cover Israeli strikes rather than direct US action.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

geopolitical43%EXPIRED

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

China's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

geopolitical81%

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The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.

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