The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.
Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), but the Bayesian escalation probability for this specific dyad is only 20%, and existing pending predictions already cover Israeli strikes rather than direct US action.
- Probability
- 53%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 11in 12d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.