China's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 81% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: most likely equilibrium is 'China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence' at p=100%, fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk — this is the dominant ongoing strategy, not a tail event.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

The United States will announce a new export control measure, sanctions designation, or licensing restriction targeting a Chinese semiconductor or advanced-technology firm within 14 days.

geopolitical27%

The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

China's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture