The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 43% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium shows 'fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance' as most likely outcome (55% confidence), consistent with the confirmed July 2026 hawkish-hold precedent. Crowd price of 39% for no-change appears to underweight this pattern.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will conduct or publicly acknowledge a direct military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

China's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

geopolitical81%

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The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (no 25bps move in either direction), resolving Polymarket market 2252244 as YES.

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