The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 5% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot shows no stable equilibria and a hawkish-hold-dominant Nash outcome, making a cut highly unlikely; slightly above crowd's 1% given genuine model instability rather than certainty.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new export control measure, sanctions designation, or licensing restriction targeting a Chinese semiconductor or advanced-technology firm within 14 days.

geopolitical27%

China's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

geopolitical81%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical74%EXPIRED

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The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

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