The United States government will announce a new arms sale, defense package, or security assistance measure for Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis shows US pursuing 'Economic deterrence' equilibrium (100% likelihood) amid critical coalition fracture risk (30% stability) and a narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range, indicating continued US pressure responses to China's gray-zone escalation.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Navy will conduct or publicly announce a naval escort, convoy, or freedom-of-navigation operation in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical33%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical74%EXPIRED

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

geopolitical59%

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The United States government will announce a new arms sale, defense package, or security assistance measure for Taiwan within 30 days.

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