Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 59% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions) with dominant 'calculating' actor types on both sides and a bearish 60%-confidence market assessment; IRGC actor intelligence confirms active escalation posture following senior naval leadership losses.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ballistic or cruise missile test within 14 days, continuing the escalating military posture and expanded nuclear doctrine noted in current DPRK actor intelligence.

geopolitical69%

The US Congress will pass comprehensive crypto regulatory legislation (market structure or stablecoin framework bill signed into law) within 30 days.

geopolitical48%

China's government will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bond guarantee, mortgage rate reduction, or dedicated bailout fund) within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

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Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

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