The US Navy will conduct or publicly announce a naval escort, convoy, or freedom-of-navigation operation in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 33% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-25.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis shows 67% escalation probability with a sufficient-but-fragile 50% bargaining range; Red Sea Nash equilibrium already names 'naval convoy escorts' as the US strategy, and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents establish an active pattern warranting continued naval response.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States government will announce a new arms sale, defense package, or security assistance measure for Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical74%EXPIRED

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

geopolitical59%

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The US Navy will conduct or publicly announce a naval escort, convoy, or freedom-of-navigation operation in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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