The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 74% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Diverges from crowd (81% YES). Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle equilibrium shows zero stable equilibria and Nash most-likely outcome is 'Hawkish hold + guidance' (bearish, 55% confidence), not an outright hike, which is historically rare given deeply negative equity momentum (SPY/QQQ MACD histograms -3.0/-3.6) that a hike would exacerbate.

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 5 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States government will announce a new arms sale, defense package, or security assistance measure for Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

The US Navy will conduct or publicly announce a naval escort, convoy, or freedom-of-navigation operation in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical33%

Israel will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

geopolitical59%

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The United States will announce a new export control measure, sanctions designation, or licensing restriction targeting a Chinese semiconductor or advanced-technology firm within 14 days.

geopolitical27%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' as YES.

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