North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ballistic or cruise missile test within 14 days, continuing the escalating military posture and expanded nuclear doctrine noted in current DPRK actor intelligence.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-25.

Derived from: North Korea Intelligence Update (escalating military posture, new border deployments, expanding nuclear doctrine to maritime capabilities); North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch vs sanctions escalation, mixed)

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ballistic or cruise missile test within 14 days, continuing the escalating military posture and expanded nuclear doctrine noted in current DPRK actor intelligence.

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