The United States will announce or conduct a new naval convoy escort operation in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-25.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium (Iran maintains Houthi support; US conducts naval convoy escorts, mixed, 2 equilibria) combined with wartime regime and prior confirmed Houthi attack pattern in the region.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

geopolitical66%EXPIRED

Pakistan will conduct or acknowledge at least one retaliatory cross-border military strike or artillery exchange against India-administered territory within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

China's central bank or housing regulator will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus or bailout measure within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

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The United States will announce or conduct a new naval convoy escort operation in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

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