China's central bank or housing regulator will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus or bailout measure within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma scenario identifies 'China: Targeted property bailout' as the most likely equilibrium (mixed, 70% confidence), with 1 stable Bayesian equilibrium supporting policy action within the window.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will publicly raise its military alert level, announce a reserve mobilization, or conduct a security operation explicitly linked to the Yom Kippur War anniversary/Autumnal Equinox window (around September 19, 2026) within 14 days.

geopolitical23%

Japan's government will announce a new defense spending increase, procurement decision, or capability acquisition explicitly linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

China will announce a new retaliatory tariff, export control, or sanction measure targeting US companies or goods within 30 days.

geopolitical33%

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China's central bank or housing regulator will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus or bailout measure within 30 days.

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