HITBrier 0.777

Early-confirmed: USDCHF hit target below 0.8 on 2026-08-19. Current price: 0.80 (started at 0.81).

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Market

SHORT correctUSDCHF

USD/CHF will trade below 0.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows rotate into the Swiss franc amid confirmed Hormuz chokepoint disruption and the 80% overall escalation risk score.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-10 at 12% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-19. Brier score 0.777.

Wartime regime risk-off overlay (F&G 38, 80% escalation risk score) driving traditional safe-haven currency flows into CHF, distinct from already-covered JPY/KRW/SGD safe-haven predictions.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 2436d ago
Made: Aug 10

Price Target$0.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/CHF will trade below 0.79 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued wartime risk-off capital flows extend the already-confirmed franc-strengthening trend below the 0.80 threshold hit in the prior window.

market61%MISS

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USD/CHF will trade below 0.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows rotate into the Swiss franc amid confirmed Hormuz chokepoint disruption and the 80% overall escalation risk score.

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