MISSBrier 0.374

Data-resolved: USDCHF moved from 0.81 to 0.82 (1.69%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 0.79. Target not reached. Low was 0.81.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUSDCHF

USD/CHF will trade below 0.79 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued wartime risk-off capital flows extend the already-confirmed franc-strengthening trend below the 0.80 threshold hit in the prior window.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 61% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.374.

Derived from: prior confirmed USD/CHF safe-haven move below 0.80, sustained 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score, and continued Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) supporting franc demand.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$0.79

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/CHF will trade below 0.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows rotate into the Swiss franc amid confirmed Hormuz chokepoint disruption and the 80% overall escalation risk score.

market12%HIT

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USD/CHF will trade below 0.79 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued wartime risk-off capital flows extend the already-confirmed franc-strengthening trend below the 0.80 threshold hit in the prior window.

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